Overpopulation in California

Will There be an Electricity Shortage?

Using data analysis, examining growth trends, and creating equations for curve of best fit, we have researched and gathered data on a possible effect of overpopulation in the state of California. Our research answers the following questions:

• Will overpopulation affect the electricity availability in California?
• What has been the trend in electricity consumption the past decade?

CALIFORNIA’S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION—PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE?

As you can see from the graph, since 1990, California's electricity consumption grew only modestly throughout the 1990s. The average increase in power use per year was roughly 1 percent, far below the average growth of 2.2 percent for the nation as a whole. (The year 2000, however, proved an exception—demand in California rose 4.6 percent, a jump attributed to warmer-than-average weather and the state's booming economy, which grew by more than 9 percent.)

As a result, by the time California's residents and businesses were asked to make major cutbacks in power use, they were primed to respond—and respond they did. From June through September, nearly one-third of households served by Pacific Gas & Electric slashed their monthly electricity use 20 percent or more. Even more impressive, this group's total electricity use over the summer months plunged 40 percent, compared to a year earlier.

Though this data does not allow us to find a line of best fit nor a specific mathematical formula to predict future consumption, it is obvious that the electricity consumption will increase in the future, especially since we are increasing in population. Do we have the capacity to meet the increased demand?

HOW HAS CALIFORNIA HANDLED ELECTRICITY SHORTAGES IN THE PAST?

What does the past tell us about the future? Remember California's electricity crisis? In the spring of 2001, the Golden State was bracing for a long, hot summer of rolling blackouts. Experts predicted days, possibly months, of outages, with each one darkening two million households or more. But in the days and months following those warnings, a strange thing happened—none of the blackouts materialized.

So how did California reverse its supply crunch so quickly? The answer, for the most part, is conservation. In the middle of the crisis, state legislators and Gov. Gray Davis scrambled to assemble a far-reaching, $730 million statewide conservation campaign that included a blitz of "kill-a-watt" TV and radio ads, tougher efficiency standards for new homes and office buildings, and financial incentives for curbing electricity use, such as utility bill rebates.

INVESTING IN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES AND CONSERVATION

Of course, California's accomplishments weren't engineered overnight. The state's impressive track record of investing in energy efficiency and renewable sources of power, such as wind and solar power, laid a foundation for the emergency measures introduced to defuse the crisis in the spring of 2001. Over the past two decades, for instance, California diverted a small fraction of every electricity bill to utility-run conservation programs, which, collectively, eliminated the need for nine 500-megawatt power plants.

Obviously, conservation alone can't solve an energy crisis—or guarantee clean, reliable, and affordable power in the future. What's needed, too, are investments in energy-efficient technologies and new ways of tapping wind, solar power, and other renewable resources.

WHAT VARIABLES LIMIT OR SUSTAIN THE CONTINUATION OF A TREND?

California's electricity crisis resulted from a number of trends and conditions, rather than a single cause. Some of the main variables that contributed to the electricity shortage trend were low rainfall, increased natural gas prices, reduced investment in new power plants, and public utilities deregulation.

HOW DOES A TREND AFFECT PEOPLE’S CHOICES?

The electricity shortage trend spurred Californians to embrace conservation as a choice for dealing the crisis. From buying more efficient refrigerators to turning off idle computers, Californians conserved in large and small ways causing an unprecedented drop in power demand. That decline, along with a boost in supply from new power plants and federal price caps, brought an end to what seemed to be a steady gap between supply and demand.

WHAT WILL OUR QUALITY OF LIFE BE LIKE IN THE FUTURE?

Obviously, conservation alone can't solve an electricity crisis trend. What is needed, too, are investments in energy-efficient technologies and new ways of tapping wind, solar power, and other renewable resources. California is leading the way in this as well, putting $2

billion for research over the next decade. Yet, California's success in dealing with the electricity crisis shows that Americans are willing to curb their energy use when the consequences are clear and have proven

that conservation is a powerful tool capable of making a serious dent in energy demand and prices, bringing an improved quality of life to the people of California. This should serve as a model for all Americans interested in improving the energy problems in this country.